PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

[Shadowgirlau]

While perusing the net for information about the current pandemic I came across this and thought it is something we could all think about. Now this is pertinent to the US mainly but only because we ourselves doen't have a pandemic history being such a young country althought the information is just as pertinent -


“Pandemics are global in nature, but their impact is local. When the next pandemic strikes, as it surely will, it is likely to touch the lives of every individual, family, and community.” What is influenza or the flu?
Influenza or the flu is an acute viral infection of the respiratory tract caused by one of three strains of influenza virus – A, B, or C. Symptoms include fever, chills, body aches, headache, fatigue, dry cough, sore throat and congestion.
What is pandemic influenza?
Pandemic influenza is a global outbreak of influenza to which people have little or no immunity and for which there is no vaccine. The infection spreads easily, causes serious disease and can spread worldwide very quickly. Symptoms can include diarrhoea, nausea, and vomiting as well as normal flu symptoms.
Prerequisites
There are three prerequisites for the start of an influenza pandemic:
1. A new influenza virus needs to be introduced to which humans have little or no immunity.
2. The new virus must be able to replicate in humans and cause disease.
3. The new virus must be able to efficiently transmit itself from one human to another.
There are about 3 pandemics each century. The three pandemics in the 20th century occurred in 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-69.
1968-69 34,000+ deaths in U.S.
700,000+ deaths worldwide
1957-58 70,000+ deaths in U.S.
1 to 2 million deaths worldwide
1918-19 675,000+ deaths in U.S.
50 to 100 million deaths worldwide
The number of deaths depended more on the virulence of the virus than on treatments available. More Americans died of the flu in 1918-19 than died in WWI. In fact, more Americans died of the 1918 flu than died in all the wars in the 20th century.
Vaccines
There are some facts about vaccines that should be understood when discussing pandemic influenza.
• Vaccines are virus specific. They are only effective against one form of one virus.
• They protect but are not 100% effective.
• They do not cure influenza.
• Yearly flu vaccines are developed based on informed predictions of which flu strain will be most predominant that year.
• A pandemic virus is unknown until it infects and it will take at least six months to develop a vaccine against it.
Why should I be concerned about pandemic flu?
• There is no sure way to stop a pandemic from occurring.
• We cannot predict when the next flu pandemic will occur BUT the longest period between pandemics has been 42 years. The last one occurred in 1969.
• We cannot prepare a vaccine until the flu begins infecting people.
• We cannot prevent the spread of influenza without very exacting measures; it is very contagious.
• We cannot cure influenza.
• We cannot cure viral pneumonia, a possible secondary infection to flu.
• Bacterial pneumonia, another possible secondary infection, has a 20-30% death rate even with antibiotics.
• Flu symptoms may be more severe during a pandemic and the flu may have more complications.
• Even healthy people are at increased risk for serious complications during a flu pandemic.
• The number of deaths could be high.
• We know little more than they did in 1918 about how to cure the flu or how to prevent it. We only know how to lessen the impact IF those measures are implemented.
How will a pandemic affect me?
• 50% of the population could become infected.
• Work absenteeism is expected to be about 40% which could result in disruption of normal utilities, banking, businesses, etc.
• A pandemic could last 12 to 24 months.
• Communities could be affected by several waves lasting 3 to 8 weeks each.
• Vaccines and antiviral drugs will be in short supply and vaccines will not be available until at least the second wave of flu.
• Available healthcare will be limited because of high demand.
• You will probably be on your own or have limited assistance.

The current (2007) concern of health officials is the H5N1 avian influenza. It is a particularly virulent virus in birds, causing widespread death in flocks in a short period of time. It spreads from wild birds to domestic birds and can be transmitted to mammals. It has spread to humans who have had close contact with infected domesticated birds. It has met 2 of the 3 prerequisites for a pandemic to occur. Currently, it has not spread from human to human but that is the fear because it continues to evolve. If that were to happen, we would have a pandemic. Officials are trying to keep the virus from spreading by trying to eliminate it from chicken populations through mass slaughter and vaccines. The H5N1 appears to have similarities to the virus which caused the 1918-19 pandemic, so we can look to that pandemic to learn how to treat and prepare for the next pandemic.

PANDEMIC INFLUENZA: WHAT CAN I DO NOW?
“What happens before [a pandemic] is far more productive [than what happens after one starts] and individual preparations on a household basis are the kIt’s not just state and local governments – every tribe, business and family needs to talk through a pandemic plan.”
We know a flu pandemic will eventually come and we have an idea what some of the problems will be. What can we learn from the pandemic of 1918-19 that can help us prepare?
Lessons from the 1918-1919 flu pandemic
• Plan and prepare ahead.
• Have food stored in your home.
• Have medical supplies in your home.
• Have savings.
• Have alternate fuel supplies.
• Have multiple communications methods.
• Prepare for self-medication.
o Know nursing skills
o Know strict hygiene methods
• Social distancing makes a difference. Cities that implemented social distancing had a much lower incidence of infection spread than cities that did not. This limited frequency of and closeness of contact between individuals in a public setting.
• Prepare to have religious services at home.
• Prepare to have children home from school.
• Volunteer your help; don’t be afraid to help. Terror was created in 1918 when officials and the press did not report the truth of what was happening. “The public could trust nothing and so they knew nothing…this terror prevented one woman from caring for her sister, prevented volunteers from bringing food to families too ill to feed themselves and who then starved to death, prevented trained nurses from responding to the most urgent calls for their services. The fear, not the disease, threatened to break the society apart.”1
• Survivors who had the flu are immune. Survivors are invaluable volunteers in subsequent waves of the flu because they are immune.
• Lead out, if necessary. If you see a need, lead out.
What can I do NOW?
• Store 3 months of food for each person in your household. This should get you through two waves of flu.
• Store medications for pain, fever, diarrhoea, vomiting, and respiratory infections as well as medical supplies and learn how to use them.
• Keep extra prescription medications stored.
• Store at least 2 weeks (14 gallons) of water for each person in case water is disrupted.
• Store fuel for alternate cooking, heating and light sources in case utilities are disrupted.
• Have more than one way to communicate with others outside your household.
• Prepare to have children home from school for an extended period
• Prepare to work from home.
• Have some cash at home and savings in the bank in case you are unable to work.
• Have life insurance in case the worst happens.
• Find out if there is a pandemic plan for your community.
• Help your family, friends, and neighbours to get prepared.
• Get involved in community volunteer groups such as CERT (Community Emergency Response Teams)
Help limit the spread of influenza
• You can help limit the spread of influenza by practicing some self-protection methods. You should begin when the flu first strikes the United States because it can spread cross-country rapidly. Also practice these methods when going anywhere that infection can enter the country, such as international airports.
• Avoid shaking hands. Viruses can be unknowingly transferred from infected individuals or from surfaces they have previously touched.
• Wear a surgical mask/respirator. The flu virus is often transmitted through the air. A tight-fitting surgical mask that is resistance to fluids provides adequate protection. It should be worn at all times when you are in contact with individuals outside of your home. The masks can be hung to dry and reused unless they have been contaminated with body fluids or blood.
• Clean hands often. The flu virus can live up to two days on surfaces. You can spread the virus by touching those surfaces and then your mouth or eyes or other people before washing. Anti-bacterial soap or alcohol based hand cleaners are most effective.
• Cough or sneeze into a tissue or your elbow. Infected droplets can be projected 1 yard in front of you and you are contagious 48 to 72 hours before symptoms appear.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth to lessen the chance of infecting yourself.
• Limit contact with those outside your home especially inside buildings. Consider everyone outside your own home as potentially infected. Distance yourselves from others by not going into public places such as school, church, cultural events, sporting events, and social activities and possibly even work. It is recommended that you stay more than 3 feet away from anyone else when you are around others. You may even decide to reverse-quarantine or go into self-isolation by staying in your home and not going out at all when the flu is active in your community.
1The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History by John M. Barry, page 462.


References:
The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History by John M. Barry
Influenza Pandemic Preparation and Response: A Citizen’s Guide by the Mid-Peninsula Citizen’s Preparedness Committee
Eastern Idaho Public Health District


After doing some research online about pandemics I went to read the news (I like to read the news as I am usually too busy to watch it) and I read that the pandemic virus in Mexico is said to be decreasing as in it is becoming controlable (well I don't believe that for a minute given that all the past research has indicated that pandemic virus' occurr in waves for several months) and then read that our own government has this lazical outlook when it comes to people being prepared to look after themselves and their families for a given length of time as is evidenced by a government minister saying that people don't need to stock up etc and should just go about their normal business/activities etc. Well that is really helpful;


I wonder what they will say when the next wave comes? or I wonder what they will be saying when people just shrug this off and then we have a full scale event here with people being unable to look after themselves let alone their families?

Of course that is one method of population control I guess.

Kathleen

[minnie]

Hi Kathleen,

Interesting article, and good information.

I find it interesting that the 1918 (spanish flu) killed mainly people in the prime of life, so the young healthy men either got taken in war or the pandemic at the time.

I got Hong Kong flu in 1970 (still hanging around after it started in 1968) which ended up with pneumonia, of interest back then the doctor visited me at home, unlike now when you can't get an appointment for weeks and have to sit with everyone coughing in the waiting room!

When I went to the doctor the other week they had a sign on the door, saying if you thought you had Hooping Cough not to come in, but to ring the bell and the nurse will bring out a mask for you. Shouldn't it be if you suspect hooping cough ring the doctor to come and see you at home!

If this does end up like the 1918 pandemic especially, then it will be because people have to go out to a doctor or hospital, no-one seems to teach their children how to cough and sneeze into a hanky, let alone use a hanky (more tissues and then thrown on the ground) and because so many mothers have to work they 'have' to send their sick children to school or preschool these days, unlike the days when kids were sick they stayed home with Mum until well.

Most of the steps for protecting yourself from a pandemic I do every winter, as I know I catch everything that effects my chest since 1970. And how did I get that Hong Kong flu - a visiting relation brought their son to stay who was sick with flu, instead of staying at home. My brother a baby at the time, ended up nearly dying and I ended up with pneumonia and a life time of chest problems (never had a cough or cold prior to this).

So for me, if people have any flu, stay home and take care of yourself! Soldier on... isn't the way, other than to spread it further.

Vicki
PS Paul, sort of reminding me of Survivors... that beginning of the show with all the planes spreading the flu that wiped out nearly everyone.

[Shadowgirlau]

I often get funny looks from people as when I go shopping I will spray antibacterial spray over the trolley I am going to use then wipe my hands with a similar wipe. Once I have completed shopping I wipe my hands again (always carry both a small bottle of sanitizer and also a purse size packet of wipes). When we eat out I give hubby a wipe before we eat and after we visit public loo's if necessasary. Once home I remove everything from its packaging and put it into my own containers and wipe all surfaces down again that the packages etc have been siting on.

One friend told me it was overkill and maybe it is but it does make me feel better even though I do know that most viruses will not live on the surface of anything for longer than 2 hours (unless conditions are right for it)

During winter I particularly try and avoid going to public places like shopping centres at busy times and will not visit the Dr unless I really have to. If I do visit a Dr then I always sit far away from everyone else and I touch nothing that can't be avioded while there.

My aim is to eventually get back to having a good storeroom which is packed with enough to last us 12 months at least.

The less often I need to go out in public the better off I will feel about it. Geeze I am becoming antisocial
by the way it also means my pocket book will feel healthier as well with a lower fuel out put

Kathleen

[minnie]

Hi Kathleen,

I got the giggles visualising you wiping down hubby and the trolley, trolleys, door handles etc and apparently research in Japan shows pens are great ways to transmit a virus.

While I'm fairly careful I have to admit no where near you...

The other side of the coin, is they say many kids these days are so steralised that they don't build up immunities and therefore get more allergies. So there sure is a thin line... I go for not going out unless absolutely have to and yep it sure saves money. I'm becoming quite the hermit as the years pass.

Now in the Survivors, one episode saw where these three men went away from everyone and therefore didn't get the virus... but they got visited and those that survived it or didn't get it all must carry it. They ended up dying from the virus after all.

I keep the purse size sanitiser and wipes in the bag... don't worry you're not alone.

Vicki

[Shadowgirlau]

Glad to be of service in the humour department

Actually while I do spray and wipe down I should own up to not doing it all the time as I sometimes forget to take my bags with me and that of course means I forget my spray too. I do always have my wipes though.

Couldn't agree more with your view on our sterilized society nowadays. When my kids were younger I would let them play outside,on the floor, in the mud etc and would change their clothes for example only when we were going out or if they got wet during the day. My sister in law on the other hand wouldn't put her kids on the floor or let them play in the dirt. She always put a clean sheet on the floor when ever she did put them down (even on the carpet) and if they got any dirt or mess on them at all they were changed immediately. Her kids caught every bug going while mine were never sick. The only illness my kids have ever had was measles and they seldom did then or do now get colds. They have no allergies either.
So I must have done something right somewhere along the line.

Actually I have often thought over recent years how much more anal I have become about hygiene as in sanitizing everything in sight that I touch when out. I think though I do this with the trolleys and such because there are so many people out there that don't wash their hands after visiting the lav and such.

Kathleen

[minnie]

Hi Kathleen,

Just saw this little sentence in a news article about 'the pandemic'.

Mr Corben confirmed that under the Federal pandemic plan, Australians should now be stockpiling 14 days worth of supplies of food, water and basic medicines.

This tells me most Australians don't have any sort of supply in their homes... 14 days, good grief if we couldn't go to town now for 14 days well the cats would have to eat meat from the freezer and not Dine Desire we'd be short some fresh veg but would get along quite well.

Yes I've seen some people ridiculous with their children and yet they don't teach them to wash their hands!! Something SO small to do and ultimately saves lives... yes melodramtic but shown in the past to be true.

I go through stages of watching people with the trolleys and the girls on the cash register coughing and sneezing into the hand and then giving me change... I cringe! So while I'm no where near as 'focused' as you, I am a tad weird out there in the crowds as well.

Vicki

[Shadowgirlau]

How nice of you to say I am "focused" and not weird or worse

I have heard the 14 days bit on telly and the very next news report to come out some other politician said it was unecessary for Australians to do such a thing as have a 14 day suupply of food in their homes. I don't know some people are just ignorant. I bet he doesn't have to go out and do the shopping


It frustrates me when i go shopping on Christmas Eve, or the day before a public holiday and one can't move for people stocking up for the holiday when the shops are usually only closed for 1 day in anycase.

Gosh I think we would all perish if we couldn't get to the shops for a protracted time!

Actually when I think about it I don't think there would be many people in Australia who could (or even knew how to do so)plan and store food for a week let alone 14 days or 3 months

Kathleen

[minnie]

Hi Kathleen,

I think you are quite right in that Aussies don't know how to store food... I think it comes from having a good climate and always buying whatever, whenever.

Remember when Christmas the shops DID close for the holidays and Easter went from Friday to Monday with no shops opening. Now everyone acts as though they won't get a chance to shop for weeks and in reality it's usually a day... how sad our society has become in many ways.

Vicki

[Mojojo]

I can't beleive people would not already have fourteen days worth of food at home already! It only takes a few packets of dried pasta, rice, etc and a bit of this and that in the freezer or tinned for when the fresh stuff runs out.
But then again I suppose there are plenty of people who exist mostly on takeaway and pre-prepared meals and barely even know how to cook a meal at home.

Agree with the comment Vicki about how everyone struggles to deal with the shops being closed a day or two over easter and the like. I foolishly attempted to pop into coles for one or two things on Easter Thursday, and would have done without them had I known how chaotic it was going to be! Its always crazily busy before a long weekend.

Here's hoping this one will not be as bad as it looks.

There was an article some time back - months back - on news.com.au about three vials of swine flu virus that were being studied going missing from a lab in America... makes you wonder.

[minnie]

Hi Jo,

There was an article some time back - months back - on news.com.au about three vials of swine flu virus that were being studied going missing from a lab in America... makes you wonder.

Didn't read this, but have to admit it was the first thing I thought of... I think they've probably been testing in Mexico.

Then here's another article that DH (who reads all things non mainstream) found, which rings true as well:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=13408

Vicki